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It’s a rematch of the 2014 Champions League final, as the Madrid derby plays out in Milan with Europe’s
biggest club prize on the line. Atletico Madrid are still seeking their first-ever European title, after being
denied by their local rivals two years ago.

Real Madrid were the favorites then, and they are again the favorite to raise their 11th European trophy. Los Blancos are valued at +140 according to Bovada, with Atletico an underdog at +210. In 2014 there was a draw after regulation, and this year that result is valued at +220. That could be feasible, as both clubs have played excellent defense to close out the season.

Atletico Madrid have had the best defense in the competition, and maybe in all of Europe. They’ve recorded an absurd 35 clean sheets this season, and defender Diego Godin completes a fully healthy Atletico lineup. That could slow down Real and Ronaldo, who left training early on Tuesday but has promised he will start on Saturday.

Atletico Madrid were defensive stalwarts in 2014, but the rise of Antoine Griezmann has made them dangerous at the other end. The French international scored in the club’s semifinal win over Barcelona, and is valued at +200 to score anytime in Milan.

With Ronaldo out and Atletico playing behind the ball, set pieces are going to play a critical role in the final. In 2014, both regulation goals were from set pieces, and both were scored by defenders.

Atletico’s demise came late two years ago, when Juanfran was injured after Diego Simeone had used all of his substitutes. The fullback was torched in extra time, giving Real the space they needed to break the back line of their rivals. A long game can only benefit Zidane and Real, as Atletico would prefer to score early and lock down on defense.

If there’s anything guaranteed in this matchup, it’s the under. Only four goals have been scored in the last four meetings between these teams, and under 2.5 goals is valued at -175 by Bovada.

Atletico are tough, but Madrid have really been excellent to close out the season. Even if Ronaldo isn’t fully fit, Bale has been outstanding this season and should give Simeone’s club fits. Atletico will score, but it won’t be enough to topple the mighty Madrid on their way to an 11th title.